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Ahiaga-Dagbui, D D and Smith, S D (2014) Dealing with construction cost overruns using data mining. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 682-94.
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords:
- ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2014.933854
- Abstract:
One of the main aims of any construction client is to procure a project within the limits of a predefined budget. However, most construction projects routinely overrun their cost estimates. Existing theories on construction cost overrun suggest a number of causes ranging from technical difficulties, optimism bias, managerial incompetence and strategic misrepresentation. However, much of the budgetary decision-making process in the early stages of a project is carried out in an environment of high uncertainty with little available information for accurate estimation. Using non-parametric bootstrapping and ensemble modelling in artificial neural networks, final project cost-forecasting models were developed with 1600 completed projects. This helped to extract information embedded in data on completed construction projects, in an attempt to address the problem of the dearth of information in the early stages of a project. It was found that 92% of the 100 validation predictions were within ±10% of the actual final cost of the project while 77% were within ±5% of actual final cost. This indicates the model's ability to generalize satisfactorily when validated with new data. The models are being deployed within the operations of the industry partner involved in this research to help increase the reliability and accuracy of initial cost estimates.
Bijleveld, F R and Dorée, A G (2014) Method-based learning: a case in the asphalt construction industry. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 665-81.
Buser, M and Koch, C (2014) Is this none of the contractor’s business? Social sustainability challenges informed by literary accounts. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 749-59.
Close, R and Loosemore, M (2014) Breaking down the site hoardings: attitudes and approaches to community consultation during construction. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 816-28.
Collinge, W H and Harty, C F (2014) Stakeholder interpretations of design: semiotic insights into the briefing process. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 760-72.
Ju, C and Rowlinson, S (2014) Institutional determinants of construction safety management strategies of contractors in Hong Kong. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 725-36.
olde Scholtenhuis, L L and Dorée, A G (2014) High reliability organizing at the boundary of the CM domain. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 658-64.
Rutten, M E J, Dorvan der Veen, B, Voordijk, H and Dorée, A (2001) Innovation of construction in the Dutch railways: lessons from inter-organizational co-operation. In: Akintoye, A (Ed.), Proceedings 17th Annual ARCOM Conference, e, A G and Halman, (2014) Together on the path to construction innovation: yet another example of escalation of commitment?. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 695-704.
Sage, D, Dainty, A, Tryggestad, K, Justesen, L and Mouritsen, J (2014) Building with wildlife: project geographies and cosmopolitics in infrastructure construction. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 773-86.
Sherratt, F (2014) Exploring ‘Zero Target’ safety programmes in the UK construction industry. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 737-48.
Shipton, C, Hughes, W and Tutt, D (2014) Change management in practice: an ethnographic study of changes to contract requirements on a hospital project. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 787-803.
Smiley, J-P, Fernie, S and Dainty, A (2014) Understanding construction reform discourses. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 804-15.
Taggart, M, Koskela, L and Rooke, J (2014) The role of the supply chain in the elimination and reduction of construction rework and defects: an action research approach. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 829-42.
Tansey, P, Spillane, J P and Meng, X (2014) Linking response strategies adopted by construction firms during the 2007 economic recession to Porter’s generic strategies. Construction Management and Economics, 32(07), 705-24.